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The Westbound Transpacific Stabilization Agreement said projections show 4.1 percent growth in 2010 and 6.9 percent growth in 2011 for all types of westbound cargo.
WTSA spokesman Niels Erich, in an e-mail Wednesday to American Shipper, said the forecast was from the Port Import Export Service, and was "a representative example of what industry analysts are saying about westbound cargo volume trends."
The WTSA disputed an account of a meeting between its 10 steamship line members and exporters of agricultural and forest products last week in San Francisco. Peter Friedmann, executive director of the Agriculture Transportation Coalition (AgTC) told American Shipper Monday that the WTSA was "forecasting a 7 percent decline in U.S. exports, which generated a collective gasp from our AgTC attendees, who believe that true forecast is exactly the opposite -- a significant, even possibly double-digit increase in export sales."
In a separate e-mail to American Shipper, Robert Sappio of APL, a WTSA member, said his company is "forecasting a 6.5 percent growth in the export market and I am certain WTSA has a similar figure."
WTSA said "the further implication that carriers are not putting enough westbound tonnage in the market because they are basing their individual capacity allocations on faulty westbound forecast data, is simply wrong. Carriers make fleet decisions based on internal as well as third-party research, and they focus on the round trip, typically assuming eastbound as the head haul for the time being because a) it moves twice as many containers; b) has more demanding service requirements; and c) commands higher rates. That situation is unlikely to change anytime soon."
WTSA added it was "happy to get as much forecasting input from the customer side as possible, to help them plan and meet demand in the coming year, and will certainly factor any commodity-specific data into their decision making."
Friedmann said another meeting was planned with the WTSA in June.
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