Air cargo traffic will increase at an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent, doubling by 2034, according to the Federal Aviation Administration’s recently released forecast through 2034.
This increase, the agency noted, will be fueled by steady economic growth, both domestic and worldwide.
FAA noted that revenue ton miles fell by 4.8 percent last year, but will inch up by 0.8 percent in 2014.
“The freight/express segment of domestic air cargo is highly correlated with capital spending,” according to the report. “Thus, this segment’s growth will be tied to growth in the economy. The mail segment of domestic air cargo will be affected by price and substitution.”
All-cargo carriers will maintain a majority of the domestic air cargo market moving forward due to the shrinking domestic business for passenger carriers, FAA predicted. It noted that all-cargo carriers now fly 88.8 percent of all domestic revenue-ton miles, up from a 70.1-percent share in 2000. The market share for all-cargo carriers is predicted to hit 90.4 percent by 2034.
Internationally, revenue-ton miles are on the decline. FAA said 2013 activity showed a 7.5-percent decrease “as fallout from the European debt crisis and a slowdown in China’s economic growth slowed worldwide trade."
International activity will creep up by 0.6 percent in 2014, though, and will increase by 5.4 percent annually to 2034.
Internationally, all-cargo carriers hold a 74.6-percent market share, up from 50.3 percent in 2000. FAA predicts these carriers will have 80.9 percent of the market by 2034.