Drewry Shipping Consultants is predicting that this year contract rates negotiated with shippers on the key East-West trade lanes will be higher when compared to the low levels of 2012.
Referencing its latest quarter Container Forecaster
report, London-based Drewry forecasts global container demand to increase by 4.6 percent this year
, but says "Considerably faster capacity growth at the trade route level will severely challenge carriers and even the ability of the fast growing North-South trades (such as Asia to Latin America) to prop up the deficiencies elsewhere.
"It cannot be ignored that the headhaul compound annual growth rate of the three core East-West trade lanes in the 2008-12 period has been only 0.4 percent," the firm added.
Drewry said "despite attempts by carriers to pull capacity from East-West trade routes, significantly weaker cargo volumes have limited the success of their attempts to lift freight rates for any sustainable periods."
To illustrate this, Drewry pointed to what has happened on the Asia-Europe trade during the past year.
"Since the huge overnight success of the March 2012 GRIs implemented by shipping lines to bring rate levels back above break-even, there have been a further seven attempts to lift rates – equating to a total of around $2,800-$3,000 per FEU on the Asia-to-North Europe trade. During this period, average headhaul freight rates have actually declined from about $2,700 in early March to $2,400 as of early January 2013," Drewry said.
"While this is not a disaster for the carriers, it proves that there is a fundamental weakness in the market compounded by low volumes on the back of a non-existent peak season last year. Coupled with a marked reluctance by carriers to pull enough capacity, particularly in the Asia-Mediterranean trade, average headhaul load factors have remained in the 75%-85% range for most of the second half of 2012 and the strategy of missing sailings has proven to be insufficient to lift freight rates for any sustainable period," the firm explained.
"With another 40 ships of at least 10,000 TEUs due for delivery this year, carriers will have a very difficult time deploying them without doing further damage to the supply/demand balance," it said.
Drewry further noted "operational alliances across virtually all global trade lanes will certainly increase."
The emphasis by carriers on using missed sailings "will only lead to severe volatility in the spot market with carriers reacting to weaknesses on a
temporary basis, with the GRIs essentially being used to prohibit further rate erosion, rather than advancing them by any sustainable margin,” said Neil Dekker, Drewry’s head of container research.
Drewry said "the latest indications from the market suggest that load factors from Asia to North Europe and the Med are higher - helped by the usual pre-Chinese New Year cargo spike, but the acid test will be how long any carrier rate successes last beyond the middle of February when volumes traditionally weaken."
The firm said "mainly due to the successes of the second and third quarters in 2012, lines are forecasted to make around $1.5 billion collective profit, although not all carriers will end up in the black."
But Drewry said "if carriers continue to engage in sensible cost cutting strategies and carefully manage capacity at trade route level, which will probably involve a more radical strategy on layups - and projections on global GDP growth ring true, they could make a profit approaching $5 billion in 2013."
But Dekker noted that “Carriers’ obvious reluctance to pull capacity in the core trades since October suggests that many still have an eye on trade share. Carriers seem to want to have it both ways. The core trade lanes are undergoing a major upgrading process with over 40 x 10,000-TEU vessels delivered in 2012, but at the same time they are refusing to lay up or idle significant tonnage.”
Drewry’s analysis of the six East-West services suspended from October 2012 revealed that only eight vessels were temporarily idled, with the majority simply transferred to other strings. - Chris Dupin