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Dealing with long-term uncertainty

American Shipper Magazine

Friday, December 21, 2012

Scenario-based planning is a better approach than the more common practice of extrapolating from past trends, and planning increasingly expensive capital improvements based on anticipated capacity requirements that may not pan out. Given that so many factors that can change the structure of the world economy are happening simultaneously, this may be the only rational way to make investment decisions these days. Economic forecasts are much maligned, but this is due to misinterpretat...

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